Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Calculate the expected value of poker decisions
Calculate Expected Value
The total amount of money in the pot before the bet
The amount you need to call
Your estimated probability of winning the hand
Enter pot size, bet size, and win probability to calculate expected value
Understanding Expected Value
Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you expect to win or lose on a particular decision over the long run. It's the most important concept in poker mathematics.
The EV Formula:
Key Concepts:
- •Positive EV (+EV): Profitable decision over the long run
- •Negative EV (-EV): Unprofitable decision over the long run
- •Zero EV: Break-even decision
- •Long-term Thinking: EV is about making profitable decisions over thousands of hands, not individual results
Example:
Scenario: $100 pot, $50 bet to call, 40% chance to win
Calculation: (0.40 × $150) - (0.60 × $50) = $60 - $30 = +$30 EV
Result: This is a profitable call worth $30 in expected value. Even though you'll lose 60% of the time, the pot odds make calling profitable.
Pro Tip: Always make decisions based on EV, not on whether you win or lose individual hands. A +EV decision that loses is still the correct play.